Explaining the Surge of the Populist Radical Right: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effects of Immigration and the Economy in Norway

Abstract

Populist radical right parties have become major forces in most Western democracies. Previous research has provided conflicting evidence on whether their electoral support can be explained by two structural developments: economic decline and increased immigration. Using time-series regression and almost 30 years of aggregated monthly polling data, we perform a novel test of the effects of economic decline and immigration on aggregate support for the Norwegian Progress Party. We find that the most beneficial time-periods for this party seem to be those of rising immigration and a booming economy. However, our findings also suggest that the effect of rising immigration is halted when the party holds government office. Thus, voter mobilization based on anti-immigration messages may represent a challenge for the Norwegian Progress Party and potentially other such parties going forward as they may become victims of their own success.

Explaining the Surge of the Populist Radical Right: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effects of Immigration and the Economy in Norway